Eviction Risk Hotspots: A County-by-County Analysis
New research reveals that eviction risk is not evenly distributed across the US, with certain counties exhibiting significantly higher rates of eviction filings. These hotspots can be identified by analyzing geographic patterns in housing data. By understanding these patterns, policymakers and investors can better anticipate and respond to emerging trends in the housing market. This analysis has significant implications for homeowners, who may be unaware of the risks in their own communities.
COMPASS Signal Intelligence · Reviewed July 2026
The Signal
Eviction risk is strongly correlated with geographic location, with certain counties experiencing significantly higher rates of eviction filings than others. This correlation holds even when controlling for factors such as income, employment rates, and housing prices.
For example, in some counties, eviction filings have been shown to increase by a measurable amount in the 2-3 quarters leading up to a foreclosure, while in other counties, this increase is much more muted. These geographic patterns can be used to identify areas at high risk of eviction and housing loss.
2-3 quarterstimeframe for eviction filings increase before foreclosureIllustrative example, not a cited statistic
a measurable increaserise in eviction risk in high-risk countiesIllustrative example, not a cited statistic
30-40%proportion of counties with elevated eviction riskIllustrative example, not a cited statistic
While geographic patterns in eviction risk are informative, they should not be used to stigmatize or stereotype specific communities. Eviction risk is often the result of broader economic and social factors, and addressing it will require a nuanced and multifaceted approach.
Mechanisms Behind Eviction Risk
Geographic Variation in Housing Markets
Eviction risk is influenced by a range of factors, including local housing market conditions, employment rates, and access to social services. In some counties, a strong job market and high demand for housing may drive up prices and rents, making it more difficult for low-income households to afford their homes. In other counties, a decline in industry or a lack of job opportunities may lead to higher rates of unemployment and poverty, increasing the risk of eviction.
In addition to these economic factors, geographic patterns in eviction risk may also be influenced by local policies and regulations, such as rent control laws or eviction moratoriums. By understanding these mechanisms, policymakers can develop targeted interventions to address eviction risk and promote housing stability.
Predictive Power of Eviction Filings
Forecasting Foreclosure Trends
Eviction filings have been shown to be a strong predictor of foreclosure trends, with a measurable increase in eviction filings often preceding a rise in foreclosure rates. This predictive power can be used to identify areas at high risk of housing loss and target interventions to prevent foreclosure.
For example, in some counties, eviction filings may increase by a measurable amount in the 2-3 quarters leading up to a foreclosure, while in other counties, this increase is much more muted. By analyzing these patterns, policymakers and investors can better anticipate and respond to emerging trends in the housing market.
Implications for Homeowners
Understanding Your Risk
For homeowners, understanding the geographic patterns in eviction risk can be a powerful tool for managing their own risk. By knowing the eviction risk profile of their county, homeowners can take steps to protect themselves, such as seeking out financial counseling or exploring options for renting or selling their home.
Additionally, homeowners can use this information to advocate for policies and programs that address eviction risk and promote housing stability in their community. By working together, homeowners, policymakers, and investors can create a more stable and equitable housing market for all.
Get Free Help with Your Housing Situation
If you're a homeowner struggling to make ends meet, we're here to help. Our team of expert advisors can provide you with free, personalized guidance on managing your housing situation and avoiding eviction. Contact us today to learn more.
What is the relationship between eviction risk and foreclosure?
Eviction risk is strongly correlated with foreclosure, with eviction filings often preceding a rise in foreclosure rates. This relationship can be used to identify areas at high risk of housing loss and target interventions to prevent foreclosure.
How can I determine the eviction risk profile of my county?
You can determine the eviction risk profile of your county by analyzing data on eviction filings, foreclosure rates, and other housing market indicators. You can also contact local housing organizations or government agencies for more information.
What can I do to manage my own eviction risk?
To manage your own eviction risk, you can take steps such as seeking out financial counseling, exploring options for renting or selling your home, and advocating for policies and programs that address eviction risk and promote housing stability in your community.
How can policymakers use geographic patterns in eviction risk to address housing instability?
Policymakers can use geographic patterns in eviction risk to target interventions to prevent foreclosure and promote housing stability. This can include implementing policies such as rent control laws, eviction moratoriums, and financial assistance programs for low-income households.